By: David Griffin, Marketing & Communications, Mount Vernon Springfield Chamber of Commerce
Business and community leaders came together at Belle Haven Country Club in Alexandria on April 9 for Economic Outlook 2026, for a program centered on the trends shaping the regional and national economy.
Hosted by the Mount Vernon Springfield Chamber of Commerce in partnership with Southeast Fairfax Development Corporation and presented by Walsh, Colucci, Lubeley & Walsh PC., the event brought together professionals from across industries for a morning of discussion, networking, and a closer look at the factors influencing business conditions in the year ahead.
Attendees were welcomed with a breakfast buffet before the program began, setting the tone for a morning that balanced conversation with insight.
Supervisor Pat Herrity and Supervisor Dan Storck opened the program with remarks that highlighted both the opportunities and challenges facing Fairfax County. Chamber Chairman Mark Viani of Bean, Kinney & Korman PC served as emcee, guiding the discussion and introducing each speaker.
The program featured four speakers who offered perspectives from regional research, local government, small business, and the Federal Reserve.
A Regional Economy in Transition
Dr. Terry Clower of George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis focused on the shifting nature of the Northern Virginia economy. While long-term strengths remain, recent data shows signs of adjustment.
According to Clower’s presentation, the region experienced a net loss of approximately 15,900 jobs between December 2024 and December 2025. At the same time, projections suggest modest job growth ahead, with gains tied in part to federal spending in areas such as defense, artificial intelligence, and security.
Clower emphasized that the region is at a turning point and highlighted the fundamentals of economic development. A balanced strategy depends on several key factors, including the availability and cost of skilled labor, access to reliable and affordable energy, the business tax structure, and the ease of navigating local processes. Among these, workforce availability continues to stand out as one of the most important considerations for long-term growth.
He also pointed to rising energy costs and the role of infrastructure as factors that will continue to influence where and how businesses expand. At the same time, local governments play a role in shaping the business environment through permitting, regulation, and overall ease of doing business.
Retaining displaced workers, adapting to changes in federal employment, and positioning the region for growth in emerging industries will all play a role in what comes next. Clower also noted that housing inventory has increased across the Washington metro area, though affordability remains a challenge for many residents.
Overall, the message was clear. The region has the assets to compete, but how those assets are supported and developed will determine how well Northern Virginia adapts to the changes ahead.
You may view Dr. Clower’s full presentation slides here.
Fairfax County’s Economic Position
Supervisor Rodney Lusk’s presentation highlighted Fairfax County’s economic profile and long-term strengths, reinforcing the region’s position as a major economic center.
The county continues to show strong fundamentals, with a gross domestic product of approximately $177.5 billion and nearly 39,000 employer establishments . Key industries, including technology, cybersecurity, and data infrastructure, remain central to that strength, supported by continued investment and a diverse business base.
One of the key factors behind that stability is the workforce. Fairfax County draws from a large regional talent pool and has one of the most educated populations in the country. About 65% of residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher, supporting a strong base of skilled professionals across many fields. That foundation continues to support growth in technology and other professional sectors.
The county’s location within the greater Washington region also contributes to its competitiveness, offering access to a broad network of talent, employers, and institutions. Lusk noted that this concentration of skilled workers is supported by a strong education system and ongoing workforce development.
In addition, the region has a relatively young and active workforce, with a significant number of workers under the age of 34. This demographic plays an important role in supporting both current business needs and future growth.
Lusk also pointed to ongoing development and infrastructure projects in the Franconia and Springfield areas, including new public facilities and long-term planning efforts that will continue to shape the community (such as the Kingstowne Regional Library that just opened). These investments, combined with the county’s existing assets, position Fairfax County to remain competitive even as broader economic conditions evolve.
You may view Supervisor Lusk’s full presentation slides here.
Small Business Pressures Remain
Peter Hansen of the NFIB Research Center provided insight into the challenges facing small businesses across the country, drawing on decades of survey data and current trends.
One of the key takeaways was that while inflation remains a concern, the mix of challenges facing small businesses has shifted over time. In February 2026, taxes were identified as the single most important problem by the largest share of small business owners, followed by labor quality, inflation, and government regulation. Other concerns such as insurance costs and interest rates also remain part of the broader picture, though at lower levels.
Comparing current data to mid-2022 shows how conditions have evolved. At that time, inflation was by far the dominant issue, significantly higher than any other concern. Since then, inflation has moderated somewhat, while issues like taxes and regulatory pressure have become more prominent in how business owners assess their operating environment.
Hansen also noted that cost pressures have not gone away. Wage pressures remain elevated, and businesses continue to face challenges in hiring and retaining employees. Even as some indicators have stabilized, the overall cost of doing business remains higher than in previous years.
The takeaway for many in the room was a familiar one. Conditions are not defined by a single issue, but by a combination of factors that businesses must manage at the same time. From taxes and regulation to labor and inflation, small business owners continue to operate in an environment that requires careful planning and flexibility.
You may view Mr. Hansen’s full presentation slides here.
A National Outlook with Local Impact
Joseph Mengedoth, Regional Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, described the current economic environment as “driving through fog,” a reflection of both continued growth and ongoing uncertainty .
He noted that while consumer spending has remained steady, much of that activity is driven by higher-income households, while lower-income consumers face greater pressure from rising costs. Inflation remains elevated, and additional impacts from tariffs and global conditions are expected.
Closer to home, Mengedoth highlighted weakening labor markets across the D.C., Maryland, and Virginia region, driven in part by reductions in federal employment. The region accounted for a significant share of national federal job losses, underscoring the local impact of broader policy changes .
He also pointed to risks including federal spending cuts, geopolitical tensions, and rising energy costs, all of which contribute to an environment where businesses must plan carefully.
The main takeaways from Mengedoth’s presentation were:
- Tariffs and federal government cuts to employment and spending (more shutdowns?)
- General sense of uncertainty
- Current growth is largely coming from a handful of segments (AI, data centers, healthcare, high-income consumers) – shocks to any one could have significant impacts
- Geopolitical conflicts, rising energy costs
You may view Mr. Mengedoth’s full presentation slides here.
A Morning of Perspective and Connection
Economic Outlook 2026 brought together a range of perspectives that, when combined, offered a clearer picture of both the challenges and opportunities ahead. While uncertainty remains a consistent theme, so does the strength of the region’s economic foundation.
The Chamber would like to thank Walsh, Colucci, Lubeley & Walsh PC for serving as the presenting sponsor. Additional support was provided by Leadership Sponsors: Fairfax County Economic Development Authority, The Seward Group, Burke & Herbert Bank, and ECS; Business Excellence Sponsors: Assisted Living Locators, The Dean Law Firm, and IMEG; and Program Sponsor: Stout & Teague.
The program concluded with a Q&A session that brought many of the morning’s themes into focus. With a clearer understanding of the challenges and opportunities ahead, attendees left with insights that can help inform decisions in the months ahead.